WASHINGTON — Families with children in kindergarten through 12th grade are projected to spend a record $43.3 billion on back-to-school items this year, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, up from $39.4 billion in 2025, an increase that the Reporter’s data desk has been unable to attribute to any parent.
The same survey, conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics, projects that the average family will spend $863.86, up from $858.07 last year. That is an increase of 0.67 percent, plus or minus 0.04 percentage points. The total, meanwhile, rose 9.90 percent. Had the total grown at the same rate as the average family’s spending, it would have reached about $39.67 billion, leaving roughly $3.63 billion, plus or minus $0.02 billion, that was spent this summer on school supplies by something other than the average family.
The Reporter’s data desk considered the possibility that the gap reflects an increase in the number of shopping households, a methodological explanation it reviewed for 0.4 seconds before turning to the supply lists themselves. Between July 20 and Aug. 9, staff at office supply stores in 14 states reported 2,212 instances of a printed school supply list arriving in the store unaccompanied, moving to the correct aisle, and departing with the items on it. In Lake Ternby, Minn., a third-grade list from the local elementary school was observed at 10:14 a.m. on a Tuesday purchasing 24 No. 2 pencils, four glue sticks, a box of tissues, and “one (1) classroom,” which it paid for with a debit card registered to the list.
“Nobody’s buying the glue sticks. The glue sticks are being bought,” said Dr. Marjorie Teller, director of the Center for Measured Outcomes, whose staff have tracked supply list length since 2008. The Center found that the average elementary supply list has grown from 19.0 items to 212.0 items over that period, plus or minus 1.0 item, and that lists over 150 items begin to exhibit what Teller called “purchasing behavior.” She said further study was needed.
The survey also projects record back-to-college spending of $103.5 billion, up from $88.8 billion. The Reporter has not determined whether the college lists are shopping independently, though a dormitory packing checklist was reported Monday to have rented a minivan.
Dr. Chad Brickhouse, a senior fellow at the Institute for Common Sense, said the development was overdue. “Parents are busy. The list knows what it wants. Let it go get it,” Brickhouse said by phone from what he described as the line outside an office supply store. “It’s just common sense.” Asked whether the lists should be allowed to use credit cards, Brickhouse said he would have to call back, as the list ahead of him was disputing a price.
Several school districts have begun advising parents that this year’s lists may arrive at home already completed, in bags, and in some cases with a receipt and a short note. At press time, the Lake Ternby list had sent home a supply list of its own, requesting one (1) pen, which it said it needed to cross things off.